2026 California U.S. House races

All 52 House districts

The certified November 3 general-election field for every California district, plus district polling we could verify publicly. Updated November 2, 2026.

Decision Desk HQ model probabilities

November 2, 2026 snapshot. Supplied display time: 3:03 PM; our retrieval displays 10:03 AM without a timezone. No timezone conversion is assumed. These are model win probabilities—not vote shares, polls or expert ratings. Model uncertainty remains; outcomes are not guaranteed.

CA-13: 87% Democratic win probability (Likely D)
CA-22: 84% Democratic win probability (Likely D)
CA-45: 94% Democratic win probability (Likely D)
CA-48: 92% Democratic win probability (Likely D)
CA-06: 98% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-21: 97% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-25: 98% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-49: 98% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-01: 99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-03: 99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-27: 99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-41: 99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-47: 99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-09: >99% Democratic win probability (Safe D)
CA-05: 92% Republican win probability (Likely R)
CA-40: >99% Republican win probability (Safe R)
CA-20: 99% Republican win probability (Safe R)
CA-23: 97% Republican win probability (Safe R)

National House Democratic control probability: 84% in the supplied November 2 snapshot; the accessible page’s animated national number was not readable during verification.

Prior October 31 model snapshot

CA-22 D 84% Likely D; CA-48 D 92% Likely D; CA-13 D 87% Likely D; CA-45 D 95% Safe D; CA-06 D 98% Safe D; CA-21 D 97% Safe D. Retrieved display time 1:26 PM, timezone unspecified.

DDHQ model source

November 2 ratings review: no California changes located in Cook’s October 30 or final updates; stored California ratings and October 30 date retained. Inside Elections’ October 31 finals remain CA-06 Likely D and CA-45 Solid D.

Crystal Ball’s November 2 final ratings: nationally 239 House seats at least Leans D and 196 at least Leans R, no Toss-ups; governors 28 D / 22 R. These are forecasts, not results. California-specific final values were in images and were not captured for this refresh. The California table retains its October 20 snapshot, not purported final values.

Official candidate source

California Secretary of State certified list, dated August 27, 2026. Party labels below are the candidates’ ballot party preferences.

View all certified candidates (PDF)

Statewide House preference ≠ district poll

SurveyUSA found support for the Democratic congressional candidate at 58% and the Republican candidate at 32% statewide. It does not estimate any individual district.

Pollster: SurveyUSA
Sample: 799 likely voters from 1,000 California adults
Field dates: October 19, 2026 – October 24, 2026
Margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points (primary-source House credibility interval)

Additional statewide House reading — PPIC October

Democratic 63%, Republican 35%, don’t know 2%. Statewide preference, not a district poll. SurveyUSA remains the latest-field-date reading.

Pollster: Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Sample: 1,086 likely voters
Field dates: October 16, 2026 – October 22, 2026
Margin of error: ±3.8 percentage points

Nonpartisan PPIC; supported by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation. Ipsos online KnowledgePanel, in English and Spanish. Released October 27, 2026. Primary report (PDF).

Prior reading — PPIC September

Democratic 62%, Republican 36%.

Pollster: Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Sample: 1,103 likely voters
Field dates: September 4, 2026 – September 10, 2026
Margin of error: ±3.8 percentage points

Supported by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation; conducted online in English and Spanish by Ipsos using its probability-based KnowledgePanel.

Primary report

KGTV-TV San Diego and the San Diego Union-Tribune; news sponsors, no partisan sponsor. Online nonprobability panel from Cint USA, weighted to demographic, religious and party-registration targets.

Survey released October 26, 2026

Battleground snapshot

On the Proposition 50 map, CA-22 remains the only California seat any major rater calls a Toss-up (Cook and Inside Elections); Crystal Ball leans it Democratic. Open, Harris-won CA-48 (Issa retiring) is Lean/Likely/Tilt D across Cook, Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Democrats’ defensive seats CA-13 and CA-45 have moved toward Likely D since early October. CA-21 is now Solid/Safe at Cook and Inside Elections, but stays on this list because Crystal Ball rates it Likely D. CA-06 is Richard Pan (D) versus Kevin Kiley (No Party Preference). CA-40 is R-vs-R, Safe R.

USC’s October 30 release supplies new independent polls for CA-01, CA-06, CA-22 and CA-48. No new verified polls located for CA-13, CA-21 or CA-45 as of November 2, 2026.

Ratings are forecaster judgments, not polling percentages or guaranteed outcomes. Battleground means at least one rater does not rate a district Safe/Solid.

Ratings shown are dated snapshots; linked forecaster pages may now show a later update.

All 52 California U.S. House general-election races and verified public district polling as of November 2, 2026.
District	Certified candidates	Forecaster ratings	Verified public polling
CA-01	DMike McGuireRJames Gallagher	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	Mike McGuire 54% — James Gallagher 40% — Undecided 4% — Not voting 2% October 22, 2026 – October 26, 2026 · 444 likely voters · Margin of error: ±4.7 percentage points USC Center for the Political Future — nonpartisan, university-funded; no political, corporate or external sponsor · Released October 30, 2026. Initial ballot shown. After pushing undecideds: Mike McGuire / James Gallagher 56–41. Probability sample from PDI voter file; email invitations in three districts and email/text in one. Screened to very/somewhat likely or already voted. English and Spanish; CA-06/48 also offered Mandarin/Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. Subgroup uncertainty is larger. USC Dornsife Democracy and Fair Elections Lab primary source · News coverage
CA-02	DJared HuffmanRRobin Littau	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-03	DAmi BeraRRobb Tucker	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-04	DEric JonesDMike Thompson	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-05	DMichael MasudaRTom McClintock	Cook Political Report: Solid ROctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid ROctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid ROctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-06	DRichard PanNPPKevin Kiley	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Likely DOctober 31, 2026 Earlier Bullfinch Group surveys reported in July and September remain excluded from verified toplines because primary releases could not be located. USC’s October survey is shown here. Earlier coverage and sponsor caveats.	Richard Pan 51% — Kevin Kiley 38% — Undecided 10% — Not voting 1% October 22, 2026 – October 26, 2026 · 439 likely voters · Margin of error: ±4.7 percentage points USC Center for the Political Future — nonpartisan, university-funded; no political, corporate or external sponsor · Released October 30, 2026. Initial ballot shown. After pushing undecideds: Richard Pan / Kevin Kiley 55–43. Probability sample from PDI voter file; email invitations in three districts and email/text in one. Screened to very/somewhat likely or already voted. English and Spanish; CA-06/48 also offered Mandarin/Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. Subgroup uncertainty is larger. USC Dornsife Democracy and Fair Elections Lab primary source · News coverage
CA-07	DDoris MatsuiDMai Vang	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-08	DJohn GaramendiRRudy Recile	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-09	DJosh HarderRJohn McBride	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-10	DMark DeSaulnierRJeff Frese	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-11	DConnie ChanDScott Wiener	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-12	DJamie JoyceDLateefah Simon	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-13	DAdam GrayRKevin Lincoln	Cook Political Report: Likely DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Tilt DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-14	DMelissa HernandezDAisha Wahab	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-15	DKevin MullinRCharles Hoelter	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-16	DSam LiccardoRPeter Sundin Soulé	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-17	DRo KhannaRRitesh Tandon	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-18	DZoe LofgrenRShane Lewis	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-19	DJimmy PanettaRPeter Coe Verbica	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-20	DSandra Van ScotterRVince Fong	Cook Political Report: Solid ROctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid ROctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid ROctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-21	DJim CostaRKyle Kirkland	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Safe DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-22	DRandy VillegasRDavid G. Valadao	Cook Political Report: Toss UpOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Toss-upOctober 31, 2026 USC independent polling is now available; forecasters still rate the race Toss-up/Lean D.	Randy Villegas 52% — David Valadao 41% — Undecided 6% — Not voting 1% October 22, 2026 – October 28, 2026 · 356 likely voters · Margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points USC Center for the Political Future — nonpartisan, university-funded; no political, corporate or external sponsor · Released October 30, 2026. Initial ballot shown. After pushing undecideds: Randy Villegas / David Valadao 54–44. Probability sample from PDI voter file; email invitations in three districts and email/text in one. Screened to very/somewhat likely or already voted. English and Spanish; CA-06/48 also offered Mandarin/Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. Subgroup uncertainty is larger. USC Dornsife Democracy and Fair Elections Lab primary source · News coverage
CA-23	DTessa Lynn HodgeRJay Obernolte	Cook Political Report: Solid ROctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid ROctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid ROctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-24	DSalud CarbajalRBob Smith	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-25	DRaul RuizRJoe Males	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-26	DJacqui IrwinRSam Gallucci	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-27	DGeorge WhitesidesRJason Gibbs	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-28	DJudy ChuRApril A. Verlato	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-29	DAngélica María DueñasDLuz Maria Rivas	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-30	DLaura FriedmanRScott Alan Meyers	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-31	DGil CisnerosREric Ching	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-32	DBrad ShermanRLarry Thompson	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-33	DPete AguilarRStephanie M. Vargas	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-34	DJimmy GomezDAngela Gonzales-Torres	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	Angela Gonzales-Torres 34% — Jimmy Gomez 34% — Undecided 30% October 16, 2026 – October 24, 2026 · 423 likely voters · Margin of error: ±4.8 percentage points USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab; independently university-funded, no political or corporate sponsorship · Released October 27, 2026. Same-party general election. Initial ballot: Gomez 34%, Gonzales-Torres 34%, undecided 30%; no residual is inferred. RCP lists the pushed result: Gonzales-Torres 51%, Gomez 45%. The primary PDF is now accessible and confirms both versions. Probability voter-file sample, email invitations, weighted, English/Spanish/Mandarin-Chinese/Korean/Vietnamese. Subgroup uncertainty is larger. USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab primary source · News coverage
CA-35	DNorma J. TorresRMike Cargile	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-36	DTed W. LieuRHouston Brignano	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-37	DSydney Kamlager-DoveDSamantha Mota	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-38	DHilda SolisRPedro Antonio Casas	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-39	DMark TakanoRSteve Manos	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-40	RKen CalvertRYoung Kim	Cook Political Report: Solid ROctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid ROctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid ROctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-41	DLinda SánchezRMitch Clemmons	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-42	DRobert GarciaRBrian Burley	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-43	DMaxine WatersRCristian Morales	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-44	DNanette Diaz BarraganRGenevieve Angel	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-45	DDerek TranRChuong V. Vo	Cook Political Report: Likely DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-46	DLou CorreaRDavid Pan	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-47	DDave MinRJenny Rae Le Roux	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-48	DMarni von WilpertRJim Desmond	Cook Political Report: Lean DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Tilt DOctober 31, 2026	Marni von Wilpert 48% — Jim Desmond 40% — Undecided 10% — Not voting 2% October 22, 2026 – October 27, 2026 · 474 likely voters · Margin of error: ±4.5 percentage points USC Center for the Political Future — nonpartisan, university-funded; no political, corporate or external sponsor · Released October 30, 2026. Initial ballot shown. After pushing undecideds: Marni von Wilpert / Jim Desmond 52–44. Probability sample from PDI voter file; email invitations in three districts and email/text in one. Screened to very/somewhat likely or already voted. English and Spanish; CA-06/48 also offered Mandarin/Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. Subgroup uncertainty is larger. USC Dornsife Democracy and Fair Elections Lab primary source · News coverage
CA-49	DMike LevinRArmen Kurdian	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-50	DScott PetersRSteve Cohen	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-51	DSara JacobsRRicardo Cabrera	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.
CA-52	DJuan VargasRJeff Belle	Cook Political Report: Solid DOctober 30, 2026 Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid DOctober 20, 2026 Inside Elections — final ratings: Solid DOctober 31, 2026	No verified public district poll found as of November 2, 2026.

Prior district polls — not current headlines

CA-48: RedBox Research

Marni von Wilpert 47.7% · Jim Desmond 42.6% · Undecided 3.8% · Prefer not to answer 2.7% · Someone else 2.2% · Did not vote in this race 1%

Pollster: RedBox Research
Sample: 1,151 likely voters
Field dates: October 20, 2026 – October 23, 2026
Margin of error: ±3.6 percentage points, including design effect

A Fight Worth Having. PARTISAN: Democratic-aligned super PAC; RedBox is its polling unit. History only. Released October 25, 2026. Text-to-web. Rounded headline: 48–43, 4% undecided; exact primary figures below. Other responses are not undecided.

Primary source

CA-48: SurveyUSA

Marni von Wilpert 47% · Jim Desmond 38% · Undecided 15%

Pollster: SurveyUSA
Sample: 518 likely voters from 685 adults interviewed
Field dates: October 1, 2026 – October 7, 2026
Margin of error: ±5.2 percentage points (credibility interval for likely-voter matchup)

ABC 10News (KGTV San Diego) and the San Diego Union-Tribune. News sponsors; no partisan sponsor. Primary release October 8; coverage October 9, 2026. Coverage omits the likely-voter subset and interval; the primary release provides both.

Primary source

CA-22: Tulchin Research

Randy Villegas 48% · David Valadao 44%

Pollster: Tulchin Research
Sample: 800 likely voters
Field dates: June 15, 2026 – June 21, 2026
Margin of error: Not reported in the cited public release

House Majority PAC. House Majority PAC is a Democratic super PAC.

Primary source

CA-48 prior polling

Marni von Wilpert 45% · Jim Desmond 42%

Pollster: SurveyUSA
Sample: 522 likely voters
Field dates: August 27, 2026 – September 1, 2026
Margin of error: Not reported on the cited public topline page

KGTV-TV San Diego and the San Diego Union-Tribune. SurveyUSA identifies both news organizations as sponsors; no partisan sponsor is listed. SurveyUSA primary source.

Earlier partisan poll — campaign-released

Von Wilpert 48%, Desmond 46%, undecided 6%.

Pollster: Lake Research Partners
Sample: 500 likely voters, plus 100 NPP voter oversample
Field dates: July 9, 2026 – July 14, 2026
Margin of error: ±4.4 percentage points (full sample)

Sponsor: Marni von Wilpert campaign. Democratic firm; released by the campaign. Live telephone and text-to-online interviews, in English and Spanish. Primary campaign release, July 27, 2026 (memo dated July 21) · Polling memo · KPBS coverage, July 29, 2026.

Polling review is limited to publicly accessible, race-specific general-election toplines we could verify. “No verified public district poll found” does not mean no private or unpublished polling exists.

Frequently asked questions

Which California House races are competitive in 2026?

In Cook / Crystal Ball / Inside Elections order: CA-22: Toss Up / Lean D / Toss-up; CA-48: Lean D / Likely D / Tilt D; CA-13: Likely D / Likely D / Tilt D; CA-45: Likely D / Likely D / Solid D; CA-21: Solid D / Likely D / Safe D; CA-06: Solid D / Likely D / Likely D. These are dated forecaster ratings, not probabilities.

Is CA-22 a toss-up?

Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate CA-22 Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.

Who is running in CA-48?

Marni von Wilpert (D) faces Jim Desmond (R) in an open seat.